Thursday, June 10, 2010

Generational Change and the Future of U.S.-Russian Relations



from the Journal of International Affairs
Spring/Summer 2010

--A whole generation has no memory of the Cold War except as history, but many of the elite policy makers continue to view Russia through that lens. (We have maintained better relations with China than with Russia, even though China is less democratic and poses a bigger threat to our national interests.) Because they have not had the same period of respite that we have had, Russian youth continue to hold skeptical opinions about the United States.
--"The upheavals associated with the collapse of the Soviet Union have contributed to creating a younger generation in Russia whose values are in many ways sharply at odds with mainstream western liberalism." They tend to support Russia's power ambitions, its xenophobia, and its heightened sense of political efficacy--ability to have an impact in the larger world.
--Generational differences can also be seen in comparing Vladimir Putin to Medvedev. Putin is 15 years older and was a KGB agent serving abroad during the changes brought by Gorbachev. Medvedev is much more comfortable with an open society.
--Comparing the positions of John McCain and Barack Obama also shows a generational divide. McCain sought to expel Russia from the G8 and held a hard line on missile defense. Obama's position is more optimistic.
--Russian youth tend not to be involved in public activism. They are cynical and skeptical in their attitudes towards Russian political institutions, but more than 70% trust Putin. This suggests that they agree with their elders that Russia needs to be ruled with a strong hand.
--The Russian government has been able to mobilize young people through youth groups like Nashi which grew out of an earlier organization designed to support Putin. Nashi promotes a strand of xenophobia and has collaborated with far-right groups to attack anti-government activists.
--The Kremlin has intervened in education to "rehabilitate the image of Josef Stalin and to cover up some of the darker pages in the country's Soviet past."
--There has been an increase in attacks on ethnic minorities. One survey found that almost a quarter of youths supported "liquidation" of illegal immigrants in Russian cities.
--National and regional governments seem to be indifferent to the activities of right-wing groups.