Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Regime Change By the Book


From Dictatorship to Democracy is an short work written in 1993 by Gene Sharp at the request of Tin Maung Win, an exiled Burmese writer. It was circulated among different groups, and has since been translated into 17 languages. Sharp's focus is nonviolent struggle against dictatorships, resistance movements, and political theory.

With a degree in political theory from Oxford, Sharp is a professor at Dartmouth, has worked with Harvard University's Center for International Affairs, and is founder of the Albert Einstein Institution.

After the protests in Iran two years ago, the Iranian government singled out Sharp as a key figure behind the unrest. (Christian Science Monitor, Dec. 29, "09) One of the items you can download from the Albert Einstein Institute is a list of 198 methods for nonviolent action. At the mass trial of Iranian reformists, the government stated that post-election protests were “completely planned in advance and proceeded according to a timetable and the stages of a velvet coup [such] that more than 100 of the 198 events were executed in accordance with the instructions of Gene Sharp.” There might be some support for this accusation. In May of 2009 there were 79 downloads of Dictatorship to Democracy in Farsi. In June, during the protests, the number spiked to 3,487. In 2007, Hugo Chavez accused Sharp of being part of a CIA-led conspiracy to overthrow his government.

In an NPR interview due to air Wednesday morning, Sharp made the following observations about the Egyptian protests:

"I was amazed when I saw, very early on in the Egyptian struggle, this testimony — 'we're not afraid anymore, we've lost our fear,' " Sharp says. "That is something Gandhi always advocated. He said 'cast off your fear.'

"Once a regime is no longer able to frighten people — to terrorize them into passive submission — then that regime is in big trouble."

Consideration of Sharp's writings can be placed within the context of regime change. A quick glance through the book brought to mind several cases where his work may have had an influence. These techniques have not always been successful, tough, so it seems that other considerations must be taken into account. Recent developments in technology play a role in protest movements reaching critical mass and in creating international awareness. (Those protest signs are in English for a reason.) The other thing to consider is the role of the military. If the army remains neutral, regime change has a chance of success.