The Economist reports that Tunisia is currently going through a period of turmoil that some have called it the jasmine revolution. Calling this a revolution might be a bit premature. Seventy-eight civilians have died and street protests have grown into something bigger than a revolt, but not quite yet a revolution. No one is sure whether this will lead to a multiparty democracy, to a military coup, or to a prolonged period of turmoil.
What started it? On Dec. 17 a jobless youth set himself on fire after police confiscated his vegetable stall in a small interior town. (The Economist reports a rash of copycat self-immolations elsewhere in North Africa.) Since then, protesters, trade unions, and other opposition groups have taken to the streets in large numbers. Images from cell phones and the Internet spurred the protests. On January 14, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali (president for the last 23 years) was forced into exile. Growing oil wealth has been accompanied by increasing political repression and corruption that has particularly benefitted the Ben Ali family. The amount of money lost per year to corruption, bribery, and kickbacks is estimated to be over $1 billion per year. The police and ruling RDC party are technically still in control, but there has been a breakdown of order. In response civilians have set up voluntary guard units and things have calmed a bit. The current prime minister has announced that he will form a government and has offered concessions to civil liberties. Some would like to give the new government a chance, while others would like to see all RCD party members ousted.
The move away from the authoritarian regime of Ben Ali is an example of regime change, but we still do not know what is coming, so it is difficult to go beyond that assessment. Most definitions of a coup include some sort of reference to the military, but in this case the military seems to be staying on the sidelines. The police force had cracked down hard on the protesters. When the army forces were called in they refused to use force and so far have not taken played politics. By definition, a revolution is "a sudden and violent socioeconomic and political transformation that constitutes the most dramatic form of regime change." So far there has not been a dismantling of the political structure. The people are calling for reforms and for increased civil liberties, but the government structure itself has not been changed.
We might class Ben Ali's rule as a modernizing authoritarian regime. For some countries this seems to be a step in the process of democratization. The procedural democracy is established and in time the illiberal democracy is replaced by a liberal democracy. (South Korea and Singapore are examples.)
The most anger seems to be generated by the “jobless, jeans-clad youth against the ageing cynics in suits and uniforms.” Does this represent a major cleavage in countries with rapidly growing populations and an older generation determined to hang onto power at all expense? If so, this would be the case in many countries of the Middle East. (Iran comes to mind.)
